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While GDP is a key indicator of economic activity, it is unfortunately published quite late in North Cyprus. In order to make more accurate forecasting, an auto-aggressive moving average (ARMA) model was used in this study to forecast the real growth rates of the economy. The growth forecasting models that was developed is based on the Box-Jenkins approach which identifies the models, and was used to apply it to ex-ante forecasting. The results indicate that the forecasts relating to the ex-post period real growth rates, that the developed models gave, were reasonably accurate. Based on this result an attempt is made to forecast the ex-ante period real growth rates of North Cyprus.

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GDP, ekonomik faaliyetlerin en ciddi göstergelerinden biri olmasına rağmen, Kuzey Kıbrıs’ta bu veriler oldukça geç yayınlanmaktadır. Bu yüzden ekonomide daha isabetli tahmin gerçekleştirebilmek için mevcut veriler kullanarak ARMA Modeli ile ekonominin reel büyüme oranları tahmini yapılmıştır. Ekonomik tahmin modelleri Box-Jenkins yaklaşımı temelinde belirlenerek ex-ante tahminleri için kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, elde edilen ex-post dönem reel büyüme tahminlerinin, makul seviyede isabetli olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlara dayanarak bu çalışmada Kuzey Kıbrıs’ın reel ex-ante büyüme oranlarının tahminleri yapılmaya çalışılmıştır.

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The study investigates the dynamic relationship between stock prices and GDP in Turkey using quarterly data from 1989Q2-2014Q2. The study investigated the interrelationship between the variables via auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) framework and ECM to analyse the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between gross domestic product and stock prices. The results provide strong evidence that both the stock prices and GDP are strongly cointegrated in the long-run. The empirical estimation indicated a signifi cantly positive relationship between GDP and stock prices. The robustness of the ARDL model was confi rmed by using Johansen and Juselius’s cointegration test (1990). The Granger causality test results indicate a longrun bidirectional causality between stock prices and GDP, and also a uni-directional causality from GDP to stock prices in the short-run. Both the stock prices and the economic growth are directly linked with each other. The reliability and validity of our estimations are confi rmed by the diagnostics and the CUSUM test.

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This paper empirically investigated the dynamic relationship between Turkish stock market and macroeconomic variables, for the period span from January 2002 to December 2013. Specifically, we examined the effect of monetary policy changes during the tested period. Dummy variables were added to the model in order to overcome the effect of inflation rate targeting and exchange rate regime change in Turkey. Using VAR model, the result revealed that long-run relationship between share price index and the tested macroeconomic variables index of industrial production (IIP) Short-term interest rate (SINT), money supply (M2), and exchange rate (EXC), was maintained. Moreover, the findings from error correction term coefficient indicated that Turkish stock market adjusted its previous disequilibrium (due to positive or negative shocks) in one period at an adjustment speed of 4.449 percent monthly.

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This article examines the causal relationship between the energy consumption, electricity consumption and GDP in Russia by using time series data from 1990-2011 implying the Toda and Yamamoto approach, which is revised form of the Granger (1969) causality test (Econ. 66 (1995) 225). The maximum order of integration was determined by using PP and ADF unit root tests. The Toda and Yamamoto test is applied regardless of whether the series are I(0), I(1), or I(2), mutually cointegrated or noncointegrated. The variables were estimated at level in the unrestricted lag-augmented VAR. The AIC, SC and LR lag criteria were used to determine the optimal lag length. The diagnostics tests were performed at the optimum lag selected by estimating the variables at level and confirmed the stability of the unrestricted VAR model. The empirical evidence showed that there exists a the bi-directional causality from electricity consumption to GDP that implies the validity of feedback hypothesis but no causality was found for GDP and energy consumption supporting the neutrality hypothesis. The estimated results confirmed that both the economic growth and electricity consumption empirically support each other and have a mutual and complementary relationship. But on another hand the energy sector of Russia has no impact on the economic growth for a period 1990-2011. Furthermore, if the Government of Russia devises policies to promote the access of energy and higher level of consumption, economic growth will not be affected.

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The article investigates the relationship between the energy consumption, gross domestic savings and gross domestic income of G7 countries by using the time series data from 1970-2012. The study employs the recently developed ARDL- bounds testing approach. The article finds there is strong evidence that growth rate of income, gross domestic savings play a stronger role in determining the short run and long run behavior of energy consumption per capita in G7 countries. The empirical results suggested that in most of the countries the relationship of consumption per capita and gross domestic income is positive, that means when the income rises the consumption will also rise but not necessarily at the same rate, which is in accordance with theory of Keynes of marginal propensity to consume, confirming the absolute income hypothesis. On the other hand the gross domestic savings has a negative relationship with the energy consumption per capita which confirms the same relationship of consumption as the function of difference of income and savings in long run. The Parameters of error correction terms in USA and France are -0.4283 and -0.6190 represents the speed of adjustment is very high and it would return back to the equilibrium level very quickly. While countries like Canada, Germany, and Great Britain are having the parameters of the error correction term as -0.0794, -0.2205, and -0.0867 suggests speed of adjustments is fairly very small and would take time to return to its equilibrium position. While the error correction coefficient in case of Japan is equal to -1.0183, and also statistically significant showing that convergence is more elastic. The study suggests that although Japan, Italy, USA, France are more industrially advanced countries as production is mostly based on industries. The income generated on the basis of the energy consumption in their industries may be used as forced savings to further boost the economy that will definitely affects their growth performance positively in the long run. The reliability and validity of the estimations results are confirmed by the diagnostics tests.

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The study investigates the dynamic interaction between the Banking Return Index and selected macroeconomic variables in Turkey taking in consideration the transition in the Turkey economy. The study was implemented using cointegration test; Granger causality test based on vector error correction model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. First cointegration test revealed the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables during the period of study. Second Granger causality test indicated that Bank stock returns index Granger-cause the exchange rate, indicating a portfolio approach in the Turkish market.

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The study investigates the relationship between economic growth, imports and export for Saudi Arabia by using the time series data from 1968-2014. The study employs the recently developed ARDL-bounds testing approach. The estimations of the ARDL-bounds testing approach indicated that imports, export and GDP are strongly co-integrated. The finding of the study further indicated that exports have positive impact on the economic growth in the long run. This specifies that if exports are increased by one percent the economic growth is increased by 3.39%, implying the validity of export-led growth hypothesis. The parameter of error correction term is 2.89% that represents the speed of adjustment. This implies that economic growth converges to its long run equilibrium position by 2.89% speed of adjustments via channel of imports and Exports. As the speed of adjustment is very low and it would take time to return back to the equilibrium level, that confirms the stability of the system. The reliability and validity of the estimations results are confirmed by the diagnostics tests both in short and long run. Finally, the results of the granger causality suggest, a uni-directional causality running from export to GDP, suggesting the validity of export led growth hypothesis. While another uni-directional causality has been found from imports to exports. Being the member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia exports mainly comprises of oil that exposes the economy of country to external shocks. The study suggested that Saudi Arabia needs to invest more in the non-oil sector and diversify their investment by attracting more FDI. This will cause the economic growth to increase and also be more flexible to any external shocks.

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