Work Experience

  • 2015 2006

    Chairman

    Near East University, Banking and Finance

Education & Training

  • Ph.D. 2005

    PhD. in Finance

    University of Leicester

  • Master1998

    MSc. in Finance

    University of Leicester

  • Bachelor1997

    B.A. Business Administration

    Nears East University

Honors, Awards and Grants

  • 2012
    Micro and Macro determinants of Bank Fragility in North Cyprus Economy (1984-2002)
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    Research supported by the Turkish Republic.

Research Projects

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    Research support from the Turkish Republic.

    Micro and Macro determinants of Bank Fragility in North Cyprus Economy (1984-2002)

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“Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Returns: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange”, ‘ISA’

Book LAP Lambert Academic Publishing GmbH & Co. K.g., Volume -, Issue -, 2012, Pages -

Abstract

The CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) and the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) are two equilibrium assets pricing model which help us to determine the price for risky assets in equilibrium. The CAPM predict about how to measure risk and relation between the expected return and risk. On the other hand, APT provides an alternative way to determine the expected return on risky securities through the developed model of Ross (1976). The combined work of Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) which explain the effects of macro variables on the stock returns (stock returns may be generated according to the macroeconomic variables). This study developed and investigated the effects of macroeconomic variables on pricing stock return on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). Also, this study developed six prespecified macroeconomic variables which are: the term structure of interest rate, unanticipated inflation, risk premium, exchange rate, and money supply. They are the same as those used by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) for the US market. In this study the researcher added one more variable through the analysis test for the portfolios it shows that there were differences among each portfolio. In this study the explanatory power of the independent variables represented by R2 which is too low in the result which found. over the portfolio return in our case study (ISE) Turkey. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235698715_Macroeconomic_Factors_and_Stock_Return_Evidence_From_Istanbul_Stock_Exchange%27ISE


Özet

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Sector Distress in the North Cyprus Economy

Book LAP Lambert Academic Publishing GmbH & Co. K.g., Volume 1, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 342

Abstract

The last decades have witnessed an unprecedented increase in the number of financial distress episodes, both in developed and developing countries. Therefore, the issue of analyzing the determinants of the financial crises have become increasingly important for economies. The ability for early detection of any financial weaknesses will help to minimize any costs brought about by financial instability. This book aims to carry out an extensive analysis of the micro (bank-specific) and the macro determinants of the bank fragility in the North Cyprus economy over the period 1984-2002. The macro factors considered in the analysis are macroeconomic characteristics, financial and structural weaknesses, external shocks and potential contagion effect from Turkey. Utilizing two methods, namely the logit model and the logistic survival analysis, will help in estimating the determinants of the probability of bank failure and the determinants of the timing of bank failure. An understanding of the determinants of bank failure would help bank examiners, supervisors, regulators, investors and policy makers in their decisions to alert management in time and to prevent bank failure. Banking Sector Distress in the North Cyprus Economy. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277501787_Banking_Sector_Distress_in_the_North_Cyprus_Economy [accessed Jun 8, 2015].


Özet

1984-2002 yılları arasında Kuzey Kıbrıs banka sektöründe yaşanan finansal bunalım.

Do Savings and Income affect energy consumption? An Evidence from G-7 countries.

Conference Paper 3rd Global conference on Business, Economics, Management and tourism from 26-28th November in Rome Italy., Volume -, Issue -, 2015, Pages -

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Energy Consumption, electricity, and GDP Causality; The Case of Russia, 1990-2011.

Conference Paper 3rd Global conference on Business, Economics, Management and tourism from 26-28th November in Rome Italy., Volume -, Issue -, 2015, Pages -

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http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/15265941011012705

General Publication Determinants of the timing of bank failure in North Cyprus, 2016

Abstract


Özet

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/15265940910959366

General Publication Economic rehabilitation programme and the existence of implicit deposit insurance in North Cyprus, 2016

Abstract


Özet

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdf/10.1108/10867370910946315

General Publication The effects of macroeconomic factors on stock returns: Istanbul Stock Market, 2016

Abstract


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General Publication Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Return: Evidence From Istanbul Stock Exchange ISE, 2016

Abstract


Özet

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mohammed_Magaji2/publication/257928265_Analgesic_and_Anti-Inflammatory_Activities_of_Ethanol_Seed_Extract_of_Nigella_Sativa_Black_Cumin_in_Mice_and_Rats/links/0c960531626347e756000000.pdf#page=7

General Publication Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bank failure in North Cyprus, 2016

Abstract


Özet

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/15265940710777342

General Publication The North Cyprus banking sector: the effect of a speculative attack on the Turkish Lira, 2016

Abstract


Özet

http://search.proquest.com/openview/901dce2b086685684c0ea9b138d7cecd/1?pq-origsite=gscholar

General Publication Micro and macro determinants of bank fragility in North Cyprus economy, 2016

Abstract


Özet

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Husam_Rjoub/publication/215757186_Macroeconomic_Factors_the_APT_and_the_Istanbul_Stock_Market/links/0c96052fc8798e7ff7000000.pdf

General Publication Macroeconomic factors, the APT and the Istanbul stock market, 2016

Abstract


Özet

General Publication Banking Sector Distress in the North Cyprus Economy, 2016

Abstract


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http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=13337285724735830192&hl=en&oi=scholarr

General Publication The effects of macroeconomic factors on the London stock returns: a sectoral approach, 2016

Abstract


Özet

http://search.proquest.com/openview/0168f5ac1a0cf51f7134e61ccacc8822/1?pq-origsite=gscholar

General Publication An empirical analysis of currency crises, fundamentals and speculative pressure, 2016

Abstract


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General Publication Financial performance of banks in Pakistan, 2016

Abstract


Özet

https://lra.le.ac.uk/handle/2381/31117

General Publication Banking sector distress in the North Cyprus economy, 2016

Abstract


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Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bank failure in North Cyprus

Original Article Editorial Advisory Board e, Volume *, Issue -, 2005, Pages -

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The North Cyprus banking sector: the effect of a speculative attack on the Turkish Lira

Original Article The Journal of Risk Finance, Volume *, Issue -, 2007, Pages -

Abstract

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The effects of macroeconomic factors on the London stock returns: a sectoral approach

Original Article International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Volume *, Issue -, 2007, Pages -

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The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on the London Stock Returns: A Sectoral Approach

Original Article International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Volume -, Issue İssue : 10, 2007, Pages -

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) in London Stock Exchange for the period of 1980-1993 as monthly. The study develops seven prespecified macroeconomic variables. The term structure of interest rate, the risk premium, the exchange rate, the money supply and unanticipated inflation are similar to those derived in Chen, Roll and Ross (1986). This study extends the approach of Chen, Roll and Ross, by adding industry specific variables, such as sectoral dividend yield and sectoral unexpected production. Using OLS technique, we have demonstrated that there are some big differences among industries. Before interpreting the OLS results, the serial correlation problem is discussed by using Durbin – Waltson Statistics. D-W statistics show that there is no evidence for positive or negative serial correlation.


Özet

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Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bank Failure in North Cyprus

Original Article European Journal of Scientific Research, Volume Vol.18, Issue No.2, 2007, Pages 191-200.

Abstract

This paper provides a measure of the probability of financial institutions failure in the North Cyprus banking sector for the period of 1984-2002 using a multivariate logit model. The empirical methodology employed in this analysis allows us to identify the determinants of the likelihood of bank failure in North Cyprus. In this model, bank failure is a function of CAMELS rating system. The CAMELS approach appears to be appropriate for identifying weaknesses specific to individual banks. The empirical findings suggest that inadequate capital, poor asset quality, high interest expenses, low profitability, low liquidity and small asset size are significant variables that determine the likelihood of bank failure in North Cyprus.


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The North Cyprus Banking Sector: the Effects of a Speculative Attack on the Turkish Lira

Original Article The Journal of Risk Finance, Volume Vol. 8, Issue No. 4, 2007, Pages -

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of a speculative attack on the Turkish Lira in the North Cyprus banking sector during the period 1984-2002. Design/methodology/approach – A mutivariate logit model is the empirical methodology employed in this analysis that allows us to identify the determinants of the probability of bank failure. In the model, the existence of contagious currency crises is constructed as an index of exchange market pressure, which is a weighted average of changes in interest rates, international reserves and the nominal exchange rate. Findings – The empirical result reveals that the a speculative attack on the Turkish Lira in 1994 and 2001 put stress on banks operating in North Cyprus and led to banking sector distress. The findings also suggest that bank-specific weaknesses, high interest rates, high credit, low trade and the fixed exchange rate policy significantly increased the bank fragility. Research implications/limitations – For further research this paper may better distinguish contagion if it uses economic and financial ties from Turkey that are practically susceptible to bank failure in North Cyprus. Practical implications – This paper presents a practical application of a currency crisis model in the North Cyprus banking sector. In addition to the risk of currency crises, risk under fixed rate regimes, interest rate risk, trade risks and credit risk are also used to encourage correct risk management behaviour in the North Cyprus banking sector. Originality/value – This analysis would appear to be the first systematic evidence that investigates the effect of a speculative pressure on Turkish Lira in the North Cyprus banking sector. Keywords Cyprus, Turkey, Banking, Foreign exchange, Market forces, Financial risk


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Macroeconomic factors, the APT and the Istanbul stock market

Original Article International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Volume *, Issue -, 2008, Pages -

Abstract

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Macroeconomic Factors, the APT and the İstanbul Stock Market

Original Article International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Volume -, Issue Issue 22, 2008, Pages -

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is empirically test the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) for the period of February 2001 up to September 2005 on monthly base. In this paper, various macroeconomic variables representing the basic indicator of an economy employed which are; money supply (M2), industrial production), crude oil price, consumer price index (CPI), import, export, gold price, exchange rate, interest rate, gross domestic product (GDP), foreign reserve, unemployment rate and market pressure index (MPI) which is built by the authors. We tested 13 macroeconomic variables against 11 industry portfolios of Istanbul Stock Exchange to observe the effects of those variables on stocks’ returns. Using ordinary least square (OLS) technique, we observed that there are some differences among the industry sector portfolios.


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The effects of macroeconomic factors on stock returns: Istanbul Stock Market

Original Article Studies in Economics and Finance, Volume *, Issue -, 2009, Pages -

Abstract

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Economic rehabilitation programme and the existence of implicit deposit insurance in North Cyprus

Original Article The Journal of Risk Finance, Volume *, Issue -, 2009, Pages -

Abstract

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Economic Rehabilitation Programme and the Existence of Implicit Deposit Insurance in North Cyprus

Original Article The Journal of Risk Finance, Volume Vol. 10, Issue Issue: 5, 2009, Pages -

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of implicit deposit insurance in North Cyprus Banking Sector during the period 1984-2002. Design/methodology/approach – A multivariate logit model is an empirical methodology that identifies the probability of bank failure. The model links the probability of banking problems to a set of bank-specific factors, macro-environment and structural weaknesses that may have exacerbated the internal troubles of the financial institutions. Findings – The empirical findings suggest that in addition to the microeconomic variables, high credit expansion to private sector, implicit deposit insurance, existence of economic rehabilitation programmed, financial liberalization, weak regulation and supervision played an important role in the escalation of the 2000-2002 banking distress in North Cyprus. Research limitations/implications – For further research, this paper may extend the time period and include other macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange pressure that may have a direct effect on bank failure in North Cyprus. Practical implications – This paper presents a practical application of the deposit insurance policy as a main determinant of bank failure, which would help bank examiners, investors and regulators in their decisions to alert management in time, to prevent bank failure. The ability for early detection of any structural or financial weaknesses in the country will help to minimize financial costs of the island that brought about by financial instability. Originality/value – Overall, the empirical results that are obtained by logit model analysis are quite robust. The logit regression results reveal that the predicted values, i.e. the potential risk levels for Mediterranean Bank was very high in this analysis. Towards 2005 Mediterranean Bank had to close, which prove that the model is robust.


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Determinants of the Timing of Bank Failure in North Cyprus

Original Article The Journal of Risk Finance, Volume Vol. 11, Issue Issue 1, 2009, Pages -

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this article is to empirically investigate the determinants of the timing of bank failure in North Cyprus over the period of 1984-2002 using a discrete-time logistic survival analysis. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: The empirical methodology employed in the article allows for the determination of the factors that influence the time to bank failure. The model links the time of bank failure to a set of bank-specific factors and macro-environment that may have exacerbated the internal troubles of the financial institutions. Findings: An empirical examination of the results on survival analysis reveal that the three variables, namely low asset quality (total loan as a percentage of total assets), low liquidity (total liquid asset as a percentage of total assets) and high credit extended to the private sector (ratio of the private credit to GDP) are the main factors that explain the survival time of banks in North Cyprus. Research Implications / Limitations: For further research this paper may better distinguish time to bank failure if it extends the time period and if it uses exchange pressure from Turkey that may have a direct effect on bank failure in North Cyprus. Practical implications: Nowadays bank failure is an important problem in the world. Using time technique to investigate bank failure will help to learn the factors that determine time to bank failure, which will further help to take precautions and prevent the cost of bank failure. Originality/ Value: The analysis would appear to be the first evidence that investigate the time to bank failure in North Cyprus banking sector.


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The effects of Macroeconomic Factors on stock returns: Istanbul Stock Market

Original Article Studies in Economics and Finance, Volume Volume 26, Issue Issue 1, 2009, Pages -

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) on a monthly basis, for the period January 2001 to September 2005. Design/methodology/approach – This study examines six pre-specified macroeconomic variables which are: the term structure of interest rate, unanticipated inflation, risk premium, exchange rate and money supply. All these are the same as those used by Chen, Roll and Roll for the US market. In this study, the authors develop one more variable namely unemployment rate, which has a relation with the stock return. Findings – Using the OLS technique, the authors observed that there are some differences among the market portfolios. Before starting to comment on the result of OLS, the serial correlation problem was discussed by using Durbin-Watson statistics. In this study, the critical values were ranged from between 1.33 and 1.81 (T=57, K=6). Our test results confirmed that in ten out of the 13 there were no serial correlations. Our results show that there are big differences among market portfolios against macroeconomic variables through the variation of R2. In the remaining portfolios; there was no evidence to suggest. Research limitations/implications – In this paper, the authors face a problem that was no corporate bond in Turkey's market. Originality/value – This analysis appears to be the first empirical test of APT using the CAPM formula for finding the risk premium point for ISE.


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An empirical analysis of currency crises, fundamentals and speculative pressure

Original Article African Journal of Business Management, Volume *, Issue -, 2010, Pages -

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Determinants of the timing of bank failure in North Cyprus

Original Article The Journal of Risk Finance, Volume *, Issue -, 2010, Pages -

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An empirical analysis of currency crises, fundamentals and speculative pressure

Original Article African Journal of Business Management. , Volume -, Issue Vol 4(6), 2010, Pages 972-978

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the linkage between economic fundamentals and currency crises for four different group of countries that experience very different growth path or crises from 1991 to 2006. For this purpose, logit model was used in identifying the determinants of the currency crises’ likelihood and the market pressure index (MPI) were used in determining the currency crises of the four different groups of countries. The study selects Argentina, Brazil and Mexico from America; Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea and Thailand from East and Southeast Asia; Russia and Turkey. The empirical findings stated that: (1) real interest rate, rate of inflation, growth rate of GDP, budget balance, real exchange rate and the ratio of M2 to foreign exchange reserves were statistically significant explanatory variables; (2) however, domestic credit to GDP and various types of trade variables were not statistically significant.


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Micro and macro determinants of bank fragility in North Cyprus economy

Original Article African Journal of Business Management, Volume *, Issue -, 2012, Pages -

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Micro and Macro determinants of Bank Fragility in North Cyprus Economy

Original Article African Journal of Business Management, Volume -, Issue Vol6 (4), 2012, Pages 1323-1329.

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the links between the micro and the macro determinants of bank fragility in the North Cyprus economy over the period 1984-2002 using a multivariate logit model. The empirical methodology employed in the article allows for the determination of the factors that influence the probability of bank failure. The model links the probability of banking problems to a set of bank-specific factors and macroenvironment that may have exacerbated the internal troubles of the financial institutions. The empirical findings suggest that in addition to the employed bank-specific variables that are in the context of CAMELS criteria, macroeconomic characteristics, high credit expansion to public and private sector, the ratio of M2 to foreign exchange reserves, a sharp increase in the real exchange rates and adverse trade shocks played an important role in the escalation of the 2000-2002 banking distress in North Cyprus.


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